Daniel Moser
This project explores the role and influence of penalty kicks in professional soccer. Drawing on data from several top-tier and second-tier leagues around the world, the analysis aims to quantify how penalty kicks affect match outcomes, league standings, and individual scoring achievements.
The idea for this project originated from an offhand remark during a soccer match: “Maybe penalty kicks should be worth half as much.” That casual comment lingered in my mind and sparked a deeper curiosity about the true value and impact of penalty kicks in the modern game. What began as a thought experiment has grown into a full-fledged data analysis project.
This analysis seeks to answer several core questions:
The results of this project will be presented in three distinct formats:
This project is intended to be accessible to anyone with a basic understanding of soccer. If you know that a penalty kick is a one-on-one shot against the goalkeeper from a designated spot, you have all the background needed. More technical or sport-specific concepts will be explained as necessary.
I plan to collect data from regular-season matches in the following leagues:
The primary challenge will be acquiring comprehensive and consistent data. While top-division leagues are well-documented, lower-tier leagues may have less publicly available or granular data—particularly at the match level. This could limit the depth of analysis for certain leagues or time periods.